Oct 11, 2008

Are Computer based complex models responsible for the Financial Crisis ?

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How best the complex computer models are used to predict the financial forecasts at the Wall-Street is going to have a whole new re-look at, but people are now questioning How best the climate models are going to prove themselves in the future. Since these too are based on complex computer system models.

In fact these are the same complex system based models that scientists use to predict the Global Warming related measurements analyzing the carbon emissions and their impact on the earth's environment, that financial analysts use to predict the forecasts in the industry by tweaking the required options and derivatives to suit their needs.

But the important thing to note here is, these derivatives and options are not physical in nature in the Financial Industry where these models are employed, and hence the accuracy in predicting a financial forecast can never be guaranteed, it can go wrong as in the present financial situation where these complex system based models are partially blamed.

But the question is are Climate Models too are not dependable models where the underlying parameters are infact physical and can be predicted on a given time scale. Though there can be acceptable variations in the accuracy of the models.

It is in fact due to the claim that the scientific community holds like this one " The claim is sometimes made that if computer models were any good, people would be using them to predict stock market, Well they are " writes the author of a New Scientist article giving a nod for the accuracy of the present climate models.

There is this argument that these financial models if not whole, were partially responsible for the present situation in the Stock Markets. But how far the Climate models too are not dependable is debatable.

In fact some new avenues have opened up "The credit crisis can be used to make progress in a new direction, an opportunity for global green economic growth," de Boer, who heads the Bonn-based UN Climate Change Secretariat, told a news conference. by UN Climate Chief


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